Studi Susut Teknis Jaringan Distribusi Menggunakan Metode Pendekatan Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus PT PLN (Persero) Unit Layanan Pelanggan Sape)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58344/jii.v5i8.8037Keywords:
susut teknis, Formula Jogja, simulasi Monte Carlo, analisis probabilistic, jaringan distribusiAbstract
Pengelolaan susut teknis pada jaringan distribusi merupakan salah satu aspek penting dalam meningkatkan efisiensi penyaluran energi listrik. Kondisi jaringan distribusi dengan penyulang yang panjang, pembebanan transformator yang bervariasi, serta perubahan profil tegangan menyebabkan besarnya susut teknis sulit diperkirakan hanya menggunakan pendekatan deterministik. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis susut teknis pada jaringan distribusi PT PLN (Persero) Unit Layanan Pelanggan (ULP) Sape melalui integrasi Formula Jogja sebagai metode deterministik dan simulasi Monte Carlo sebagai pendekatan probabilistik untuk mengevaluasi pengaruh variasi kondisi operasi terhadap perubahan susut teknis. Penelitian menggunakan data teknis sistem distribusi periode Januari–April 2026 yang meliputi jaringan tegangan menengah, transformator distribusi, jaringan tegangan rendah, energi tersalur, komposisi pembebanan pelanggan, dan kondisi tegangan. Perhitungan susut teknis dilakukan menggunakan Formula Jogja, sedangkan simulasi Monte Carlo sebanyak 10.000 iterasi digunakan untuk merepresentasikan variasi kondisi operasi sistem distribusi, dilanjutkan dengan analisis sensitivitas menggunakan Standardized Regression Coefficient (SRC). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan rata-rata total susut teknis hasil simulasi sebesar 5,53%, dengan rentang 5,20%–6,01% (P5–P95: 5,39%–5,68%), serta energi tersalur, tegangan tegangan menengah, dan tegangan tegangan rendah sebagai variabel paling dominan (R² = 0,8409), sedangkan pembebanan transformator dan komposisi pelanggan tegangan menengah memberikan pengaruh yang relatif lebih kecil. Integrasi Formula Jogja dan simulasi Monte Carlo memberikan pendekatan analisis yang lebih komprehensif dibandingkan metode deterministik saja, sehingga dapat digunakan sebagai dasar dalam penyusunan strategi pengelolaan susut teknis pada sistem distribusi.
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