Perbandingan Performa Algoritma ARIMA, XGBoost, dan LSTM untuk Prediksi Harga Bitcoin Menggunakan Dataset Publik
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Bitcoin merupakan aset digital berbasis teknologi blockchain yang memiliki karakteristik volatilitas harga tinggi sehingga menyulitkan proses pengambilan keputusan investasi dan meningkatkan kebutuhan akan metode prediksi yang akurat. Seiring meningkatnya adopsi Bitcoin dan transaksi aset kripto di Indonesia, kemampuan memprediksi pergerakan harga menjadi semakin penting bagi investor maupun pelaku industri. Meskipun berbagai penelitian telah mengembangkan model prediksi harga cryptocurrency, kajian komparatif yang membandingkan pendekatan statistik, machine learning, dan deep learning pada dataset yang sama masih terbatas. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan performa algoritma Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), dan Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) dalam memprediksi harga harian Bitcoin. Dataset yang digunakan berupa data historis Bitcoin terhadap Rupiah (BTC/IDR) periode 1 Januari 2020 hingga 31 Mei 2025 yang diperoleh dari dataset publik. Tahapan penelitian meliputi pengumpulan data, prapemrosesan data, pembagian data menggunakan metode temporal split dengan rasio 70:30, implementasi model baseline tanpa optimasi hyperparameter, serta evaluasi menggunakan metrik Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model LSTM menghasilkan performa terbaik dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 83.205.260, MAE sebesar 63.429.270, dan MAPE sebesar 4,90%, diikuti oleh XGBoost dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 20,29%, sedangkan ARIMA menghasilkan performa terendah dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 46,44%. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa LSTM lebih efektif dalam menangkap pola non-linear dan dependensi temporal pada data harga Bitcoin yang bersifat volatil dibandingkan ARIMA dan XGBoost. Dengan demikian, pendekatan deep learning menggunakan LSTM dapat menjadi alternatif yang lebih baik.
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